The GM seems like the guy that focuses more on willing the battle than the war. He’s running out of options on the board to improve the team. It’s looking like Zegras or bust as of now, on the bright side he can probably find another RHD to improve the blueline if he trades for Z. Risky move, but one with upside. He’d need to find someway to add some physicality and defense in the top six though. I worry that he’ll turn down Z because of Cronin’s distaste for the guy, and not look at everything else that’s been said about Cronin.

Second, you guys need to get off the cap. They dealt Mikko for a guy making half his salary they can afford a 2M a year raise off of Casey. There’s where the money fits. The issue this season isn’t the third or fourth line, it’s injuries and the second line. If you have enough depth to lose five top nine forwards you probably lack the top end punch. There’s the issue. You gotta spend a bit. You have a black hole on the ice getting paid 6M a year and then there’s another guy that’s derailed two playoff runs also getting paid 6M a year. Those are the problems! If Nuke plays the last few years look different, if they had someone with a pulse instead of Casey the team looks different,

I think Miller would have fit the bill as well…but he has a NTC and all reports said he wanted to go back to the NE, also it takes 2 teams to trade. Obviously Mittelstadt would have had to go the other way to make space for 4 more years at $8m. I still believe long before CMac pulled the trigger, he sold a big picture long term plan to Joe. Like I said, I’m reserving judgement to see what is done in next 5 weeks and how the team is playing.

Just whiffed on JT Miller, the most getable target with the things Colorado needs is gone. A list prolific powerforward, two way center that is great on the PP, the PK and the Dot is going to New York. That’s the risk CMac took in not having the deal in place prior to dealing Mikko. Didn’t work out. Them’s the breaks. First round exit again.

A competent GM would have looked at Casey Mittelstadt and seen that he doesn’t do anything at a high level on a consistent basis. There’s nothing about him that’s always on or presents a tough match up. He’s not fast, he’s kind of a sissy, he doesn’t score goals, he doesn’t play defense, he doesn’t kill penalties, he’s a terrible power play player, and he’s rotten at the dot. That isn’t a player a smart GM invests in, dummies in Buffalo might do it, but anyone who has an understanding of what a highly paid player needs to provide doesn’t ask that.

I think signing Val was a known risk, but a risk that I understand. Like look…I got friends that traffic in similar circles, I knew the guy liked to have a good time before hand too, he had character concerns before coming to Colorado. Like lets be honest too though, if we kicked out every guy that did what Val did I don’t think we could even ice six full teams. It’s a risk, but one that didn’t work. I think *this* is pretty unforeseeable, but issues like this were not. Risks are fine! You have to take risks, but you can’t have them all go bust.

I don’t think Ritchie is a bust. I’m not out on Nabakov. I think Behrens will be a good player. Here’s what I’m saying: if you’re waiting on these guys to power you through the future you are not looking at your own history. Ten years ago they got lucky with MacK and Mikko. Ten years ago I used to date women in their early 20s, I don’t think I’d have the same type of motion these days. I’d like to think I do, but I gotta be honest.

I think many of the players that got raises are players you don’t want to give a raise to, I’m fine playing top of the market talent top of the market money. I don’t want to pay a 50th percentile player 65th percentile money. I think you’re going to more easily find a player making little that can perform at a 3rd or 2nd line level than you would finding even a player at the 85th percentile salary level playing like a top ten player.

I hope you’re right. Hate the move, hate the process, hate the guy that made it. But I like winning, if it works it works. I just see no indication that it will. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong…but we shall see!

You can seriously cherry pick facts to push a narrative. So in your world a competent GM would have seen Val getting suspended multiple times due to addiction. Known that Mittelstadt would go through an extended slump after playing outstanding hockey on his arrival and the beginning of this year. Think Ritchie is a bust because of a world juniors performance to spite averaging almost 2 PPG on his own team, think Nabokov should be written off because he’s 20….etc. Most of the Avs issues since the cup season stem from salary cap mgmt which some is a result of poor draft development but a lot is due to the players that remain from that time all getting substantial raises.

I’ll leave it at this.. why do I think Cmac will address defense and another middle 6 FWD, because for the first time since he took over, there is cap space to do it. Let’s revisit this conversation after the TDL and see what the team looks like. If the Avs only add some minor depth pieces, I’ll know I was wrong.

It felt for years like the Valeri Nichushkin saga would define Chris MacFarland’s era as Avalanche general manager.

Yeah instead he’s had two things since then that will possibly define his tenure. Sounds like a great start to trusting the guy.

It’s unfair to judge the trade in a vacuum. More moves are coming and they should be connected to this deal. Given his track record pre-2022 with finding talent on the market with cap flexibility, MacFarland has earned trust and patience.

He wasn’t making the decisions. His track record pre-2022 was a no WCF appearances and no game 7 losses. Pre-2022 his track record was that of Josh Allen, except there wasn’t a Mahomes on the other end. This still doesn’t lead me to patience. Clock is ticking. Sports history, even recent history in KSE, is littered with stories of teams that thought another shoe would drop on a move but never did. As of now the team is just worse.

Rantanen is arguably a top-10 talent in the NHL but he was the third-best player on the Avs. They couldn’t afford to pay him in the same ballpark as the other two superstars and expect to build a capable lineup around them.

He wasn’t going to have a top ten cap hit by the time the contract comes into place, but you can’t pay elite money to elite players that are capable of earning it? You can’t pay top ten players top ten money but we can pay Casey Mittelstadt 6M? Josh Manson 4.5? A guy that constantly disappears in the playoffs 6.125?

But we can’t have it both ways. Everyone around this league has spent years pushing the narrative that you cannot win while paying all of your stars market value. You can’t believe that while also getting upset when a team finally makes a gutsy move like this and trades one of those guys.

Yes, a bunch of internet jackoffs and management stooges say that. That doesn’t make it true, nor does that mean that everyone agrees with it. That’s a narrative, sure…there’s also a narrative that star players are the best players to have, which one do we see?

All we’ve heard for years is that the Edmonton Oilers window is going to close once Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid lock up new deals.

They played in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup while the MacFarland watched from his couch. Meanwhile they’re also a much better team than Colorado.

. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been an example of how not to hand out big contracts to a handful of players at the top of the lineup and still expect to have the necessary depth.

The Maple Leafs are also ahead of the Avs in the standings. Should the Avs just revert to only the Cup rules apply? Nate didn’t make big money before the Cup year I guess they should have let him walk. How many of Toronto’s top guys are defenseman? Also what’s Mitch Marner like in the playoffs? What’s Auston Matthews like in the playoffs? Hmmm…

Moreover God hates the Maple Leafs, hardly a situation any other team has.

This was the fate of the Avalanche if they paid Rantanen.

Something you made up and they already won a cup with Mikko and Cale getting paid. Erik Johnson made 6M and that number became Nate’s number. With the cap spike the difference is minimal.

Instead, the team pulled the type of bold move often seen in the NFL. Is Rantanen still in his prime? Absolutely. But Colorado just got six years out of his last contract that are likely going to be better than the upcoming six seasons, let alone eight.

I thought he was a top ten player? If this is the argument you want to make, that’s fine but this is the only time this argument shows up in your article. You can say “Mikko Rantanen isn’t worth an extension” but that doesn’t appear to be what you want to say. I get it, you gotta talk to these guys every day but like…you gotta be honest. If you want to say you don’t trust Mikko on a long term contract and you have issues with his game, I’ll walk with you on that path. I don’t agree, but there’s underlying data in Mikko (and Cale and Nate) that suggests maybe this isn’t the road the team should go down.

They rode this engine for 22, 23, or 24 minutes a night until 33 games before the end of his contract. He’s still a beast of a player. But like a luxury car, the wear and tear and mileage eventually add up.

Sounds like you’ve never driven a luxury car because the milage adds up far before this point in Mikko’s career. He’s the only guy to play 75+ each season since the Cup. For a team beleaguered by injuries they have not affected Mikko Rantanen. However, a physical 30 year old player with a lengthy injury history and a history of substance abuse, that adds up?

This is the first time MacFarland is going to have cap space to go out and explore the market since being elevated to the GM role. He and Joe Sakic struck several moves out of the park the last time this happened. They found gems in Andre Burakovsky, Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin, and Artturi Lehkonen, to name a few.

Those guys are also signed under the cap with Mikko and similar deals could have been signed again also with Mikko! Looks like you’re going to UFA, which…well, let’s just wait and see. Are you going to suggest you shouldn’t pay a top ten player like a top ten player and instead be on the wrong side of contracts like Steven Stamkos, JT Compher, and Nazem Kari?

Nobody wants to say this next part out loud: You could argue that no team was more negatively affected by the flat salary cap than the Avalanche.

Well this isn’t true. Toronto and Edmonton were more negatively affected. Also Tampa and Vegas would have been similarly affected, but they could manage the flat cap and were willing to be aggressive in ways Colorado was not.

Tampa (like the other two teams) got to flex the no-state tax tool, granted they also lost a bunch of depth along the way. But they at least got to sign all their stars to long-term deals well under market value. Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Andrei Vasilevskiy are each making less than $10 million.

When those deals were signed they were top of the market deals. They managed to win even in a flat cap era. If Mikko were to sign for 12.5M, by 2027 that number is a bargain. You’re using a different arbitrary number by the end of next season.

And the Avalanche? They won the Stanley Cup just as the league had two consecutive years of a $1 million bump. This is what MacFarland had to work with. He lost Nazem Kadri over what could’ve been resolved with an extra $3 million rise. J.T. Compher left and signed for only $1.1 million more than what the Avs gave his replacement, Ross Colton. You could even argue he would’ve taken a touch less than what the Red Wings paid him to stay.

Great Avs! I loved Nazty Naz! His book was great! Loved the interview you did with him and the piece about bringing the Cup to a Mosque. I don’t want to pay a mid 30s Kadri 7M! JT Compher is awesome, one of my favorite Avs! Very useful player on the PK. You don’t want to pay him 5M a year! Are you arguing you don’t want to pay Moose 12.5M so you can pay JT and Naz? Seriously? You’d rather have two solid, yet declining players, over a Hall of Famer?

But all of the guys who moved on earned raises because of their play in 2022. The tight budget didn’t allow MacFarland to keep those he worked hard to acquire and develop.

They were also bad contracts and their teams would like to unload them. There’s more that than the tight budget.

When the Avs were eliminated by Dallas last May, MacFarland said his targets in free agency would be budget players with low AAVs. He had zero flexibility. That was part of the reason why so many moves have tanked.

The Avs have also lost the magic touch. MacFarland targets different types of players than Sakic did. Sakic targeted guys that can finish but had other disappointing parts of their games and put them with distributors. Nuke? Finisher. Burky? Finisher. Naz? Finisher. Put guys like that with puck movers and good things happen. Or he’d target guys who were a bit disappointing, yet had promise. MacFarland targets puck movers and soft players who haven’t done much.

Calvin de Haan? He’s been fine. But an improvement would be nice. Erik Brannstrom? He didn’t even make it to the regular season opener. How about Ryan Johansen, who, when the Avs got him, were being applauded for the savvy move to bring in a player on a budget rather than analyzing his actual fit with the club. Each of these moves was made with budget as the top priority rather than fit.

Ryan O’Reilly and Matt Duchene were available, can’t pay a hall of fame but yeah lets pay a guy off an achilles slice that can’t skate 4M top play with one of the fastest teams in the league. Oh well…only cost a first round pick to get off the contract, right? There were other moves available than all of these guys that just were not made. Unrestricted Free Agency isn’t a good place to shop, teams are getting smarter and better…you’re not Billy Beane and the fat kid (Paul DePodesta was actually quite fit, but didn’t sell his rights to the movie, so yeah) ripping off dummies. We’re getting rid of a hall of famer so we can shop at a per se overpriced market?

The front office deserves trust. At least right now.

They’re a seventh place team. There’s a good chance that Mikko Rantanen is still leads the Avs in goals by the deadline. They aren’t the Kansas City Chiefs. They’re a one and done team that’s looked worse every season since and needed major roster surgery this year.

They finally have flexibility, they’ve recouped some assets, and they have an opportunity to go out and make the very same types of moves they made leading up to the night they were crowned champions.

Except they haven’t. The moves that were made leading up to that night were made at a different stage in team building. It’s easy to rebuild, super hard to maintain.

As for Rantanen, his deal was always going to be tough to fit, even with the salary cap making a meteoric rise over the next handful of seasons.

The first year of MacKinnon’s big contract was 2023-24. When you combine his $12.6 million with Rantanen ($9.25 million), and Makar ($9 million), you come up with 37% of the $83.5 million salary cap that season.

This year, that percentage dropped to 35% before Rantanen was dealt.

If next season’s cap rose to $97 million, which is the high end of projections, and Rantanen was paid, for example, $13.4 million, the trio would be making a combined $35 million — which accounts for 36% of the cap. The following year, that percentage would drop a bit.

But then in 2026-27, even if the cap reaches $107 million, you have to account for Makar’s new contract. Let’s say he gets $15 million. Now you’ve got a combined $41 million in your top three stars, which would eat up 38% of the $107 million cap.

The moral of the story is, what we’ve seen from the Avs with struggling to add depth these last two years with MacKinnon making $12.6 million would’ve probably continued. The rising cap wasn’t going to give this team the kind of relief they needed.

“Probably.” Look at the TV deals being handed out. There’s a million streamers with plenty of VC money looking for a product. Netflix paid $5 Billion for Monday Night Raw. WBD gave AEW a raise for declining ratings. The UFC is going to get another pay raise despite frequently no showing on ESPN+. They just signed a new uniform rights deal. Canada and US TV rights with a new Commissioner will move mountains.

We’ve seen what having three superstars and little depth looks like.

We’ve seen MacKinnon break franchise records and win a Hart Trophy.

We’ve seen him continue that this year and play at a pace where getting 100 assists isn’t out of the question.

We saw Rantanen break a franchise record with 55 goals in 2023 and then score seven goals in seven games in a first-round series loss to Seattle.

Makar has done nothing but get better and produce more offense than he did when he was dubbed M.V.P. of the Stanley Cup championship team with the Conn Smythe Trophy.

They broke records.

They elevated their game.

They drove the bus.

So let’s add a bunch of worse players who are worse playoff performers? Where’s the “it gets better” part? All you’re saying is this hasn’t worked (except it has) but you’re not sending anything that will work.

Put all those things together, and it becomes a little bit easier to understand why the Rantanen trade had to happen — why this scenario made more sense than paying him $14 million.

We knew what we would’ve gotten with a Rantanen extension. We don’t know yet what we’re going to get with him shipped out the door.

All the reporting since then, including from the man himself is that 14M number is bunk.

Give the Avalanche front office your trust. Give MacFarland your patience. Let those next moves fall in line before deciding if he’s cut out to be the GM.

What he does next will determine his fate and define his tenure.

“Trust him, but he might screw this up and get fired” is the gist here?

Love ya Aarif, was excited to see you take over from Evan. I get that you have to maintain relationships, but come on man…you’re better than this. How many teams lose a Hall of Fame franchise legend and get better or win a championship? Winning a championship period is an outlier event, and you’re chasing an outlier event among outlier events? Risky business. This has a chance to be the worst trade in market history.

What about the guys the Avs are paying good, not great, money? Casey Mittelstad is a 6M 2C that’s in a 40 game slump (read: not a slump) and doesn’t contribute on special teams. How is that an efficient usage of resources? Manson’s game has fallen apart and he’s playing like a 2M player making 4.5M. Nuke can’t stay healthy or off suspension and he’s making 6M. Miles Wood is a 2.5M 4th liner. These are the luxuries you cut before a Hall of Famer.

Completely unmentioned in the lack of depth is their inability to capitalize on their high valued prospects. Alex Newhook is gone, Bowen Byram is gone. Since Logan O’Connor, there has not been a player that has been developed by this organization and contributes. Ivan Ivan lost his job. Sam Malinski lost his job. Oskar Olassoun can’t get a spot. Martin Kaut, Shane Bowers, Justus Annunen, and Sampo Santa are gone. Jean Lucy Foudy is no where to be seen. It’s not like there haven’t been injuries or opportunities for these guys to play with the big club. Why are we to expect that Sean Behrens, Ilia Nabokov, and Cal Ritchie to be any different?

They have flexibility, picks, prospects and cap space. Those things only matter if they’re used well. Chris MacFarland hasn’t been impressive since taking over, he hasn’t had any good acquisitions. Necas looks good but he traded a better player to get him. I’m sure C-Mac could probably get Seider if he offered Cale too, doesn’t make it a good add! This guy is supposed to be one of the 30 best hockey minds in the world and instead he’s resorting to internet fantasy GM level takes. Unless he adds Miller or Pettersson, the trade is a failure. There’s two elite talents that are distressed assets that can be had for pennies on the dollar. There’s also a lot of competition so he can’t get cute and try to have a total victory nor should he worry about taking care of Vancouver. A move is needed today, they’re 1-2 since the trade and they have a lot of tough games coming up and need points.

Calgary is three points behind them with two games in hand, and Vancouver is four points behind them with two games in hand. It is not a guarantee they make the playoffs. Moreover, just getting in should not be the goal with a reigning MVP and maybe the best player in Franchise History (Cale), I don’t think they want Mackenzie Blackwood’s first playoff start to be against Edmonton.

Teams that have one off championships always make the mistake of chasing the championship year. A multiple time champion is a potential dynasty. You don’t recreate a one off year, you look to build a dynasty. Dynasties are built on the backs of Dynastic players, and the guy we should trust just traded one. Maybe the Spurs win without Manu Ginobili, but they’d need two guys to replace him.

I hope CMac makes me look dumb. His history has shown, he’ll just make me look foolish for ever believing in this organization.

3 of the top4 D CMac inherited on their current deals. The 4th (Toews) was locked up long term at a very fair number for an elite defender. 

Actually all of the top four he inherited since taking over, still not sure how that’s an argument.

Malinski was quite solid last year and first 30 this year. Hopefully he returns to form as the season progresses

He’s a 26 year old UDFA, I don’t think he’s turning into Chris Pronger anytime soon. He’s a fine UDFA add, but like…lets get real.

 Agree on the 6th spot, the 4 guys there now aren’t good enough. Let’s see what is done to address the issue before the deadline. I look for a pretty big upgrade here.

It was an issue the past three years. Not sure why you’d expect an upgrade, he hasn’t shown any inclination toward fixing it.

The Val take is crazy. He was signed for $6.5m in Jul of 22, coming off a phenomenal post season before any suspensions. How is anyone supposed to know that was coming.

Those sorts of “habits” typically don’t come out of nowhere.

Byram was always going to be a second pairing guy here and he will want a huge raise this offseason (why Buffalo is shopping him). The Mittelstadt trade was a good piece of business.

You traded the fourth overall pick in the draft that still had blue chip status to fix an issue you still need to fix. Not what I’d call good business.

Agree on the developmental piece, but that’s been an organizational issue for a decade. We finally have a 2 or 3 very good young players that should contribute in the next few seasons. 

Olausson, Bowers, Santa, Kaut (Necas’ best friend), and Byram should have been pieces to contribute.They weren’t. Ritchie didn’t exactly cover himself in glory at the World Juniors. Not sure why we’re banking on a 20 year old Russian Goalie and a guy of knee surgery.

 When you are paying for 3 of the top 10 players in the league, you have to use the hell out of them because they eat up 35-40% of the cap. Cmac didn’t like this business model and wants to try and balance out the roster. He has shown he’s willing to make deals to address team needs (goalie upgrade) and the team won at least 50 and made the playoffs every\

The team was a second round exit team before he got here and his first year here they were a first round exit team. You had three top ten players, you should make the playoffs! Let’s not count the chickens on the goalie upgrade. Georgev’s first season here was pretty dang good. .918 which matches Blackwood’s save percentage while starting 62 games. MacKenzie Blackwood is a 28 year old yesterday’s man of tomorrow. We’ll see.

The Oilers paid Leon because they don’t have a 3rd player making max money like the Avs will. Give Edmonton a $14m defensemen in addition to McDavid and that Draisaitl deal looks a lot different

They’re paying Darnell Nurse 9.5M on a lower cap than it will be when Cale is making 16M. They’re also a better team than Colorado and have had multiple WCF appearances while Colorado has only had the one.

Yeah I suppose I might win the lottery too.

One of the huge drivers in the differences between CMac vs Joe is current cost of the same players. The cup season, Nate/Nuke/Cale cost $10m total…today it’s $27m. So much lost flexibility for the same production…it’s just a killer for depth. If the cap goes up like they are saying, I think CMac can be elite. But time will tell.

Right. No one knows how this turns out. Nechas could become a 100 pt/yr guy for the next 5 seasons. He just turned 26.