Comments on: Deen’s View: The Avalanche’s Calculated but Risky Gamble in Trading Mikko Rantanen (+) https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/ The home of Aarif Deen and the best coverage of the Colorado Avalanche Sun, 26 Jan 2025 16:16:06 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.2 By: Brad Jacobs https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70623 Sun, 26 Jan 2025 16:16:06 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70623 In reply to Chris Duncan.

You can’t have 3 contracts eat up over 40 of the cap and ice a cup winning team. Cale is going to get whatever he wants in a few years and that’s as it should be. Colorado has used the hell out of these 3 guys since the cup year and haven’t gotten out of the second round. Time to try something different. I’m going to wait and see what else CMac does to improve this team before closing the book on this trade

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By: Chris Duncan https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70581 Sun, 26 Jan 2025 00:04:26 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70581 In reply to ricoflashback.

All the risk is on the Panthers, they’re the clear class of the East now. Total risk. The Avs got another pass first soft wing that can’t shoot. Wonderful deal.

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By: Chris Duncan https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70561 Sat, 25 Jan 2025 21:59:10 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70561 In reply to Kelly Clifton.

Okay so there’s so much wrong here I dunno where to begin:

The cap rises for all teams, so the Av’s were going to have the same unbalanced, top heavy line up they have struggled with since 21-22

The cap rises for all teams and that means that the Avs internal cap of 12.6 is a nonstarter if they want any top end talent. Moreover, it means free agency is going to get out of reach anyways so why not just keep the elite guys you got and not worry about trying to pay Jake Guentzel like he’s Mikko Rantanen? The Avs have had a top heavy line up because Valeri Nichushkin hasn’t been able to stay on the ice or play in the playoffs, they refuse to accept the inevitable with Ladeskog, every bet they’ve made at second line center hasn’t worked out, their goaltending has been rotten, and they’ve been the most injured team in the league by a country mile and traded their one guy whose played 80 since the Cup year.

 I’m not happy to see Mikko go but it takes dominant lower 6 lines to win make it into the final rounds. 

There’s no such thing as a dominant lower six line. There are lower six lines that have timely contributions and that has less to do with actual skill and more to do with variance. Darren Helm, Nicholas Aube Kubel and Logan O’Connor is not a dominant line. Neither is Luostarinen, Okpassom and Jesper Bobqvist. The Avs play their top guys so much anyways and in the playoffs they play the bottom six even less. The 21-22 team is probably the best team of the cap era. Recreating that isn’t going to happen regardless of what management does. The teams that win have dominant top sixes and dominant top pairings. It wasn’t JT Compher, Darren Helm, and Jack Johnson that won the cup it was McKinnon, Makar, Nuke, Gabe, Nah and Moose.

When you add the cap hit and production (hoping Necas and Drury continue or even improve at their pace) this trade is a net winner and we get to stop talking about seemingly uncurable lack of depth. Even better if they are not done yet.

Necas is another pass first winger, as if Colorado doesn’t have enough of those, and Drury is a 1.75M fourth line center. Paying mediocre talent good money is what kills you, not paying top end talent top end money. Colorado hasn’t had the golden touch in years. Mittelstadt, Miles Wood, Georgiev, Johanssen, Tomas Tatar, and Ross Colton haven’t set the world on fire since getting here. All players that have either left or should leave soon. Since the cup Drouin was the guy that’s somewhat stuck and even he’s fallen off. They’re not going to have Mikko Rantanen to cover up the warts either.

Vegas’s early success was because they were so brilliantly able to pick the best 6th or 7th man from every team in the league. They didn’t get the allstars but every player was solid and they put together depth across all lines. It seemed unfair at the time, but that is how a winning team is formed.

This is rewriting history, yes they nailed the expansion draft but Vegas’ success is leveraging LTIR, no state income tax, 17 man rosters, and every other cap trick to the fullest extent. They were also the most aggressive team in the league by a country mile. Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, Noah Hanafin, Thomas Hertl are driving success not Bellemare, Pickard, Perron or McNabb.

I appreciate MacFarland’s willingness to go big and take the risk it was always going to take to balance the line up

If the risk doesn’t work out you’ve killed the window for what will probably be your best player in franchise history. Would you rather take a chance every year trying to cobble together a bottom six or find a 50 goal scorer? One is a lot easier to find off the scrap heap than the other!

If your allstars get shut down the rest of the team needs the talent to create offense, this move brings them closer to that model.

If your Allstars get shut down you lose. If Cale and Nuke get shut down in the 22 playoffs the Avs lose. See what happens when Nuke doesn’t play in the playoffs. If Vasa gets rocked in the bubble fake years, Tampa loses. If Kane and Toews get shut down the Hawks never win. If Sid and Geno get shut down the Penguins lose. If Bob gets rocked, Edmonton wins. If Eichel and Stone get shut down I still get to make fun of Vegas. If Aaron Judge sucks the Yankees lose. If Mahomes sucks tomorrow the Chiefs lose, but really the refs probably carry them to another championship. If Joker or Jamal suck, the Nuggets lose.

Here’s the best part though: they still don’t have the talent to create offense! They just got worst at the top line and added an overpaid fourth line center. They got worse and didn’t add any of the types of players that they need to win! Absent another move, they’re just worse.

Here’s what is killing the Avs depth: Casey Mittelstadt and Nuke’s drug and health issues. Trading Mikko doesn’t solve those issues. They’re not only worse, they’re boring!

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By: Michael Fazio https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70544 Sat, 25 Jan 2025 19:20:56 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70544 As a hard core Avs fan from day one this trade does NOT bother me for one reason. If you had to pick between Rantanen for 82 healthy games a year with ZERO DRAMA or Nichuskin for 82 games a year with ZERO DRAMA, I’d take Nichuskin 100 times in 100 scenarios. He’s part of the big 3 … he’s a complete unicorn in this league and the Avs are a much better team when Val is on the ice, just look at their record. Val is a better Rantanen when healthy, more physical, more responsible at both ends of the ice. Rantanen is uber-talented, no doubt, but the Avs HAVE that next “it” guy with Nichuskin. I wish Rantanen the best but I ONLY HOPE Val can stay clean and healthy because there is NO ONE in the league like Val.

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By: Kelly Clifton https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70523 Sat, 25 Jan 2025 16:19:49 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70523 In reply to Chris Duncan.

The cap rises for all teams, so the Av’s were going to have the same unbalanced, top heavy line up they have struggled with since 21-22. I’m not happy to see Mikko go but it takes dominant lower 6 lines to win make it into the final rounds. When you add the cap hit and production (hoping Necas and Drury continue or even improve at their pace) this trade is a net winner and we get to stop talking about seemingly uncurable lack of depth. Even better if they are not done yet.
Vegas’s early success was because they were so brilliantly able to pick the best 6th or 7th man from every team in the league. They didn’t get the allstars but every player was solid and they put together depth across all lines. It seemed unfair at the time, but that is how a winning team is formed.
Every body is talking about Miller and Nelson, but I’m thinking it will be a physical and defensive 2nd pair D-man.
I appreciate MacFarland’s willingness to go big and take the risk it was always going to take to balance the line up. If your allstars get shut down the rest of the team needs the talent to create offense, this move brings them closer to that model.

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By: Andrew Jones https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70522 Sat, 25 Jan 2025 16:18:25 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70522 In reply to Joe Cerwinske.

My guess is Chicago is re-aquiring their own 3rd so they can go after an RFA this summer the same way St Louis did with Broberg and Holloway

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By: Glendon Gulliver https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70519 Sat, 25 Jan 2025 16:13:41 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70519 The Avs may not have wanted to move Rantanen and hoped it would work out. Lots of teams wanted to make a deal with Vancouver, but maybe the Avs felt an opportunity opened up because Carolina could not make an earlier deal. I think the Avs wanted Necas last year and this just became a deal they could not pass up. The teams deal with the agents, not the players. While Rantanen and the Avs wanted to make a deal, it seems that money ruled out over emotions. We have seen guys say they made a team friendly deal in order to stay, but the discounts were really minimal. A difference of several million dollars is huge. We now have agents talking about percentage of cap to try and get more money because NHL salaries are so low compared to the other sports. A couple of million can be a 20% difference in salary for the highest paid players. That couple of million is also what the next guy up for a new contract wants and it also can fund 2-3 4th liners.

No one knows what the future would hold, no matter the deal. Is this the spark to get some changes to bring a cup? Would keeping Rantanen just keep the status quo of a great team that does not have enough to get back to the finals? No one really knows. All we can do is hope that what ever decision is made, it will work out. There are pros and cons to any deal. Past trades are based on what happens, no matter how good it looks on paper.

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By: Jon https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70516 Sat, 25 Jan 2025 16:06:13 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70516 In reply to Jamie Frarck.

The agent represents the player so the team has to respect that and can’t ethically discuss the progress of negotiations with the player. It’s totally the responsibility of the agent to keep the player in the loop. It’s been published that the Avs would consider moving him by the deadline to avoid losing him for nothing after the season. It would be naive if the agent thought that was a bluff

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By: Jamie Frarck https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70512 Sat, 25 Jan 2025 15:31:07 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70512 In reply to Jon.

My whole family is in mourning. My son did a school report on Finland and tied Mikko into it. My daughters would often march around the house singing the Rantanen song and even named a pet Mikko. Hope the reports about him being “blindsided”are not true. Not usually how the Avs run their business. Especially to a player that has meant so much to the organization.

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By: Jon https://coloradohockeynow.com/2025/01/24/deens-view-the-avalanches-calculated-but-risky-gamble-in-trading-mikko-rantanen/#comment-70507 Sat, 25 Jan 2025 15:03:20 +0000 https://coloradohockeynow.com/?p=15412#comment-70507 Was CMac firm about a number? Probably but so was the agent. When a deal is being negotiated during the season you hear athletes say all the time that they need to focus on their sport and they’re leaving the business side to their agent. Then when a player says they were blindsided it makes me wonder if they clearly understood the stalemate. I’ve said this before but when a player understands the situation and they want to stay they’ll sometimes tell their agent just to get a fair deal done. In the end it no longer matters but I wonder about what Mikko knew. BTW, I talked to a friend and both of our wives are in mourning 😂

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