Home team discounts are a thing, but not to that degree. The only way you could get Landy to a $6.5 AAV is if you sign him to an 8 year deal which would last until he’s 36. The goalie market for Grub probably starts at 6×6. Makar is is making north of $8 mil even on a bridge deal and probably 9.5-10 if they can get him long term now. Saad might go to the open market and realize he’s not going to get a raise anywhere else in a flat cap era (see Hoffman in STL) and end up re-signing for slightly less than he made this year say $5 mil. Assuming we lose a $3.5 or so contract in expansion, that just leaves them a couple hundred grand to play with for Jost, Timmins, and anyone else. MacK’s deal should be easy when the time comes, just roll the money going to EJ into his deal (which would put MacK at $12.3) and call it a day. There will be some other cap shedding moves they need to make this summer but I really doubt that G will be among them unless they can work a sign and trade deal for Jones, that’s the only way I see him getting moved out. The really big headaches are going to come when Newhook and Byram finish their ELCs if they live up to expectations.

I want to be wrong, but I (sadly) think these numbers are absolutely ridiculous. Players don’t typically take hometown discounts, especially not with the current 20% escrow. MacKinnon saying “I’ll take less again” is a bit of a joke since he got exactly what he was worth when he signed his contract. Agents and players are in the business of maximizing their paycheck, and the NHLPA throws a fit if a guy takes less than he’s worth. People love to point to Crosby as the guy who took a hometown discount, but his cap hit was still almost 15% when he signed the contract…not exactly the magical discount that everyone pretends exists.

Grubauer, who’s nominated for the Vezina next to guys with 7 and 9.5 AAVs, will take less than 6? No. Markstrom got a 6×6 from the Flames, and Grubauer will get that or more if he asks for it.

Makar, who’s nominated for the Norris, will get take bridge deal for 5.5, when Chabot got 8 and Ekblad got 7.5? Not gonna happen. He’ll sign an offer sheet worth 9+ if Sakic wants to play games. Makar taking anything under 8.5 is a steal.

Landeskog taking 6.5 would be incredible, but plenty of teams would offer him much more. A more realistic number for him is 7, and that’s on the low end. I can’t imagine that he and his agent will look at Mikko’s 9.25 (which is already an underpay because of the term) and decide that 6.5 is sufficient.

Jones would be a great addition, but analytics suggest that he is massively overrated. Sakic needs to be careful not to shell out too much for him, though I agree that JT and Naz aren’t exactly living up to expectations.

I would love your predictions to be accurate, but I can’t see it.

And it’s obvious effort is not an issue with him – he of the three on the top line is to me clearly the one who cares the most (not that the others don’t…but observing close up you can see losing, even giving up goals, pains him just that little bit extra). I took my wife on a trip to Vancouver three years ago to watch a game there from rink-side seats that the Avs won and lost like five times in the space of an hour (eventually losing in OT in the customary quick fashion we’ve come to know all too well)…as a former athlete and military officer, it was clear that he was the person who was the most infuriated (oh, and that the Avs only true physical presence then was Big Z – a completely different matter). The question is unfortunately, all things being equal, is he the best investment of the $7M over a stretch of years? Just doesn’t seem like it. I’m a hockey fan, not an expert…but seems to me they need to split up Mack and Rants, build lines around them with young talent that has to earn that ice time, and spend the money on fixing the back-end (which as such great ingredients, but needs presence, size and physicality).

Girard’s contract is widely considered to be a great deal, so if you trade him, Sakic has to use this asset wisely. Could he be part of a Seth Jones package deal? Probably. Letting Landeskog go would be a huge mistake. I have been critical of him in the past for not producing enough in important games. But he’s the Avs best 2 way player.